The impact of societal preferences on national monetary policy outcomes

A revival of economic pluralism

  • Christoph Steinert University of Oxford
Keywords: economic pluralism, exchange rate stability, government discretion, government ideology, monetary policy, monetary policy autonomy, Mundell-Fleming trilemma

Abstract

This study investigates how societal preferences impact policy choices in the trade-off between exchange rate stability and monetary policy autonomy. Building on the theoretical approach of economic pluralism, it is argued that the size and strength of different economic actors are the central determinants for monetary policy outcomes. Times-series cross-sectional regression analysis and a fixed effect model are used to analyse the predictors for domestic monetary policy outcomes in a timespan from 1960 up to 2010 (N=467). The results suggest that the size of the export sector, the banking sector and the share of workers to gross capital formation are the central determinants for monetary policy outcomes. Being in line with economic pluralism, the finding stands in contrast to the previous assumption that the partisan character of governments plays the decisive role. This implies a dominance of lobby groups over government discretion in monetary policy choices.

Author Biography

Christoph Steinert, University of Oxford

Christoph Steinert, 24, from Ravensburg has graduated in Political Science and Public Law at the University of Mannheim. He is going to start his Master in International Relations at the University of Oxford in October 2016. His main areas of interest are the fields of conflict research and international political economy. He has professional experience in the State Parliament of Baden-W├╝rttemberg, the Human Rights Centre of the University of Potsdam and in the German Institute of Global Area Studies in Hamburg. Furthermore, he was working for three years at the chair of International Relations in a project on pro-government militias. During his undergraduate studies he has published two papers in peer-reviewed academic journals.

Published
2016-10-31
How to Cite
Steinert, C. (2016). The impact of societal preferences on national monetary policy outcomes: A revival of economic pluralism. Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science, 31, 26-52. https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.31.2
Section
Articles