Bilateral Disputes and Hold-Up Problems in EU Enlargement: A Case Study of North Macedonia and Bulgaria

Vasili J. Ioannidis

doi:10.22151/politikon.27.2.3

Authors

Vasili J. Ioannidis National and Kapodistrian University of Athens https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0182-2591

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.27.2.3

Keywords:

North Macedonia, Bulgaria, European Union, Enlargement, Hold-Up Problem, Bilateral Disputes, Decision Points

Abstract

This research note asks whether the European Union’s (EU) unanimity requirement in enlargement decision-making creates a “hold-up problem” for candidate states facing bilateral disputes with a Member State. To test this, the study applies a novel political hold-up framework to a single case: Bulgaria’s veto of North Macedonia’s EU accession bid. It draws on two sources of evidence — statements and actions by political elites in North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and the EU, and qualitative and quantitative survey data on public opinion in North Macedonia. The findings largely confirm the hypothesis: unanimity does incentivize Member States to extract bilateral concessions from candidates. However, the evidence also shows that the accession process’s many intermediary decision points are themselves a key driver of the hold-up problem, pointing to a refined hypothesis that combines unanimity with multiple decision points.

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