Democratic Backsliding or Stabilization?
The Role of Democracy Indices in Differing Interpretations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.46.3Keywords:
Autocratization, Backsliding, Breakdown, Democracy Indices, Democratization, Hybrid Regimes, Regression, Quality of DemocracyAbstract
There is a great deal of disagreement about the nature and extent of the alleged democratic backsliding. In order to understand the connection between the conflicting assessments of the democratization process and democracy indices (Freedom House, Polity, V-Dem, and Economist Intelligence Unit), this article investigates the various methods of measuring democracy. The question arises whether the studies outlining a process of democratic backsliding are backed by adequate data. The comparison of indices shows that the pessimistic authors are in minority. Although the conceptualization, coding and aggregation rules in the indices are not always applied perfectly, they determine the level of democracy accurately. This article also reveals that there is only a consensus on a first reverse wave of democratization. The second and third reverse waves cannot be distinguished based on the latest democracy data, so it is also possible to call these trends ‘periods of stabilization.’
References
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Doorenspleet, Renske. 2000. “Reassessing the Three Waves of Democratization.” World Politics 52 (3): 384-406. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100016580.
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Elkins, Zachary. 2000. “Gradations of Democracy? Empirical Tests of Alternative Conceptualizations.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (2): 293-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669311.
Elff, Martin, and Sebastian Ziaja. 2018. “Method Factors in Democracy Indicators.” Politics and Governance 6 (1): 92-104. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1235.
Erdmann, Gero. 2011. “Decline of democracy: Loss of quality, hybridisation and breakdown of democracy.” In Regression of democracy?, edited by Gero Erdmann and Marianne Kneuer, 21-50. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-93302-3_5.
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Giley, Bruce. 2010. “Democratic Triumph, Scholarly Pessimism.” Journal of Democracy 21 (1): 160-67. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.0.0134.
Hadenius, Axel. 1992. Democracy and Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hadenius, Axel, and Jan Teorell. 2005. Assessing Alternative Indices of Democracy. Working Paper. Accessed February 2, 2019. http://www.concepts-methods.org/Files/WorkingPaper/PC%206%20Hadenius%20Teorell.pdf.
Hadenius, Axel, and Jan Teorell. 2007. “Pathways from Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy 18 (1): 143-56. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2007.0009.
Haynes, Jeffrey. 2018. “The people vs. democracy: Why our freedom is in danger and how to save it, by Yascha Mounk.” Democratization 26 (1): 161-172. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1456532.
Hegre, Håvard. 2012. “Conceptualization and Measurement of Democracy.” Project Description. http://folk.uio.no/hahegre/Papers/ProjectDescriptionNFR2010.pdf.
Högström, John. 2013. “Does the Choice of Democracy Measure Matter? Comparisons between the Two Leading Democracy Indices, Freedom House and Polity IV.” Government and Opposition 48 (2): 201-21. http://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2012.10.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. “Democracy’s Third Wave.” Journal of Democracy 2 (2): 12-34. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1991.0016.
Jakli, Laura, M. Steven Fish, and Jason Wittenberg. 2018. “A Decade of Democratic Decline and Stagnation.” In Democratization, edited by Christian Haerpfer, Ronald F. Inglehart, and Christian Welzel, 268-84. Oxford: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198732280.003.0018.
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Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan A. Way. 2015. “The Myth of Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy 26 (1): 45-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0007.
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Lührmann, Anna, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2019. “A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?” Democratization 26 (7): 1095-1113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029.
Lust, Ellen, and David Waldner. 2015. “Unwelcome Change: Understanding, Evaluating and Extending Theories of Democratic Backsliding.” Annual Review of Political Science 21 (1): 92-113. http://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-114628.
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Mechkova, Valeriya, Anna Lührmann, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2017. “How Much Democratic Backsliding?” Journal of Democracy 28 (4): 162-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0075.
Merkel, Wolfgang. 2010. “Are Dictatorships Returning? Revisiting the ‘Democratic Rollback’ Hypothesis.” Contemporary Politics 16 (1): 17-31. http://doi.org/10.1080/13569771003593839.
Møller, Jørgen, and Svend-Erik Skaaning. 2013. “The Third Wave: Inside the Numbers.” Journal of Democracy 24 (4): 97-109. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0057.
Morlino, Leonardo. 2009. “Are there hybrid regimes? Or are they just an optical illusion?” European Political Science Review 1 (2): 273-296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1755773909000198.
Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay Verkuilen. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (5): 4-34. http://doi.org/10.1177/001041400203500101.
Næss, Arne, Jens A. Christophersen, and Kjell Kvalo. 1956. Democracy, Ideology, and Objectivity. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Paxton, Pamela. 2000. “Women’s Suffrage in the Measurement of Democracy: Problems of Operationalization.” Studies in Comparative International Development 35 (3): 92-110. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699767.
Pemstein, Daniel, Stephen Meserve, and James Melton. 2010. “Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type.” Political Analysis 18 (4): 426-449. http://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq020.
Plattner, Marc F. 2016. “Is Democracy in Decline?” Democracy & Society 13 (1): 1-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0014.
Polity IV. 2016. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2015.” Accessed January 7, 2019. https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4x.htm
Przeworski, Adam, Mike Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 1996. “What Makes Democracies Endure?” Journal of Democracy 7 (1): 39-55. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1996.0016.
Schedler, Andreas. 2012. “Judgment and measurement in political science.” Perspectives on Politics 10 (1): 21-36. http://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592711004889.
Schmitter, Philippe C. 2015. “Crisis and Transition, but Not Decline.” In Democracy in Decline?, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, and Christopher Walker, 39-57. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0004.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1992 [1942]. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. London & New York: Routledge.
Skaaning, Svend-Erik. 2018. “Different Types of Data and the Validity of Democracy Measures.” Politics and Governance 6 (1): 105-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1183.
Steiner, Nils D. 2014. “Comparing Freedom House Democracy Scores to Alternative Indices and Testing for Political Bias: Are US Allies Rated as More Democratic by Freedom House?” Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 18 (4): 329-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2013.877676.
Treier, Shawn, and Simon Jackman. 2008. “Democracy as a Latent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 52 (1): 201-17. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x.
Tomini, Luca, and Claudius Wagemann. 2017. “Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis.” European Journal of Political Research 57 (3): 687-716. http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12244.
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Vanhanen, Tatu. 1990. The Process of Democratization: A Comparative Study of 147 States, 1980-88. New York: Crane Russak.
Zakaria, Fareed. 1997. “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy.” Foreign Affairs 76 (6): 22-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20048274
Arat, Zehra F.. 1991. Democracy and Human Rights in Developing Countries. Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Bermeo, Nancy. 2016. “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy 27 (1): 5-19. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0012.
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1990. “Political Democracy: Conceptual and Measurement Traps.” Studies in Comparative International Development 25 (1): 7-24. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF02716903.
Bollen, Kenneth A. and Pamela Paxton. 2000. “Subjective Measures of Liberal Democracy.” Comparative Political Studies 33 (1): 58-86. http://doi.org/10.1177/0010414000033001003.
Braml, Josef, and, Hans-Joachim Lauth. 2011. “The United States of America - a Deficient Democracy.” In Regression of democracy?, edited by Gero Erdmann and Marianne Kneuer, 103-32. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-93302-3_5.
Carothers, Thomas. 2004. “Democracy’s Sobering State.” Current History 103 (677): 412-16. http://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2004.103.677.412.
Cheibub, José Antonio, Jennifer Gandhi, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2010. “Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited.” Public Choice 143 (1-2): 67-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2.
Collier, David and Steven Levitsky. 1997. “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research.” World Politics 49 (3): 430-451.
http://doi.org/10.1353/wp.1997.0009.
Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, M. Steven Fish, Allen Hicken, Matthew Kroenig, Staffan I. Lindberg, Kelly M. McMann, Pamela Paxton, Holli A. Semetko, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Statin, and Jan Teorell. 2011. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach.” Perspectives on Politics 9 (2): 247-67. http://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592711000880.
Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, and Jan Teorell. 2015. V-Dem Comparisons and Contrasts with Other Measurement Projects. Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2951014.
Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, M. Steven Fish, Adam Glynn, Allen Hicken, Anna Lührmann, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Agnes Cornell, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerløw, Valeriya Mechkova, Johannes von Römer, Aksel Sundström, Eitan Tzelgov, Luca Uberti, Yi-ting Wang, Tore Wig, and Daniel Ziblatt. 2019. “V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v8.” Accessed January 10, 2019. http://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data-version-9.
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Diamond, Larry. 1997. “The end of the third wave and the global future of democracy.” Political Science Series, 45. Vienna: Institute for Advance Studies. Accessed January 20, 2019. http://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1000/1/pw_45.pdf.
Diamond, Larry. 1999. Developing democracy: Toward consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Diamond, Larry. 2008. “The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State.” Foreign Affairs (Council on Foreign Relations) 87 (2): 36-48. Accessed February 10, 2019. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2008/87/2.
Diamond, Larry. 2015. “Facing up to the Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy 26 (1): 141-55. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0009.
Diamond, Larry, Marc F. Plattner, and Christopher Walker (eds.). 2016. Authoritarianism Goes Global. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
Doorenspleet, Renske. 2000. “Reassessing the Three Waves of Democratization.” World Politics 52 (3): 384-406. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100016580.
EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit). 2019. “Democracy Index 2018.” Accessed January 10, 2019. http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=Democracy2018.
Elkins, Zachary. 2000. “Gradations of Democracy? Empirical Tests of Alternative Conceptualizations.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (2): 293-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669311.
Elff, Martin, and Sebastian Ziaja. 2018. “Method Factors in Democracy Indicators.” Politics and Governance 6 (1): 92-104. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1235.
Erdmann, Gero. 2011. “Decline of democracy: Loss of quality, hybridisation and breakdown of democracy.” In Regression of democracy?, edited by Gero Erdmann and Marianne Kneuer, 21-50. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-93302-3_5.
Freedom House. 2019. “Freedom in the World 2019.” Accessed January 5, 2019. http://www.freedomhouse.org/content/freedom-world-data-and-resources.
Fukuyama, Francis. 1989. “The End of History?” The National Interest 16: 3-18. http://doi.org/10.1057/9781137529008_8.
Gates, Scott, Håvard Hegre, Mark P. Jones, and Håvard Strand. 2006. “Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (4): 893–908. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00222.x.
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. “What do we know about democratization after twenty years?” Annual Review of Political Science 2: 115-144. http://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115.
Giley, Bruce. 2010. “Democratic Triumph, Scholarly Pessimism.” Journal of Democracy 21 (1): 160-67. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.0.0134.
Hadenius, Axel. 1992. Democracy and Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hadenius, Axel, and Jan Teorell. 2005. Assessing Alternative Indices of Democracy. Working Paper. Accessed February 2, 2019. http://www.concepts-methods.org/Files/WorkingPaper/PC%206%20Hadenius%20Teorell.pdf.
Hadenius, Axel, and Jan Teorell. 2007. “Pathways from Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy 18 (1): 143-56. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2007.0009.
Haynes, Jeffrey. 2018. “The people vs. democracy: Why our freedom is in danger and how to save it, by Yascha Mounk.” Democratization 26 (1): 161-172. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1456532.
Hegre, Håvard. 2012. “Conceptualization and Measurement of Democracy.” Project Description. http://folk.uio.no/hahegre/Papers/ProjectDescriptionNFR2010.pdf.
Högström, John. 2013. “Does the Choice of Democracy Measure Matter? Comparisons between the Two Leading Democracy Indices, Freedom House and Polity IV.” Government and Opposition 48 (2): 201-21. http://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2012.10.
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. “Democracy’s Third Wave.” Journal of Democracy 2 (2): 12-34. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1991.0016.
Jakli, Laura, M. Steven Fish, and Jason Wittenberg. 2018. “A Decade of Democratic Decline and Stagnation.” In Democratization, edited by Christian Haerpfer, Ronald F. Inglehart, and Christian Welzel, 268-84. Oxford: Oxford University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198732280.003.0018.
Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan A. Way. 2002. “Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy 13 (2): 51-66. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2002.0026.
Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan A. Way. 2015. “The Myth of Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy 26 (1): 45-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0007.
Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. 2018. How Democracies Die. New York: Crown.
Lindberg, Staffan I., Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, and Jan Teorell. 2014. “V-Dem: A New Way to Measure Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 25 (3): 159-69. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0040.
Lührmann, Anna, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2019. “A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?” Democratization 26 (7): 1095-1113. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029.
Lust, Ellen, and David Waldner. 2015. “Unwelcome Change: Understanding, Evaluating and Extending Theories of Democratic Backsliding.” Annual Review of Political Science 21 (1): 92-113. http://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-114628.
Marshall, Monty, Gurr, T., and Jaggers, K. 2016. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2015 Dataset Users’ Manual.” Vienna: Center for Systematic Peace. Accessed January 10, 2019. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2016.pdf.
Mechkova, Valeriya, Anna Lührmann, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2017. “How Much Democratic Backsliding?” Journal of Democracy 28 (4): 162-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0075.
Merkel, Wolfgang. 2010. “Are Dictatorships Returning? Revisiting the ‘Democratic Rollback’ Hypothesis.” Contemporary Politics 16 (1): 17-31. http://doi.org/10.1080/13569771003593839.
Møller, Jørgen, and Svend-Erik Skaaning. 2013. “The Third Wave: Inside the Numbers.” Journal of Democracy 24 (4): 97-109. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0057.
Morlino, Leonardo. 2009. “Are there hybrid regimes? Or are they just an optical illusion?” European Political Science Review 1 (2): 273-296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1755773909000198.
Munck, Gerardo L., and Jay Verkuilen. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (5): 4-34. http://doi.org/10.1177/001041400203500101.
Næss, Arne, Jens A. Christophersen, and Kjell Kvalo. 1956. Democracy, Ideology, and Objectivity. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Paxton, Pamela. 2000. “Women’s Suffrage in the Measurement of Democracy: Problems of Operationalization.” Studies in Comparative International Development 35 (3): 92-110. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699767.
Pemstein, Daniel, Stephen Meserve, and James Melton. 2010. “Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type.” Political Analysis 18 (4): 426-449. http://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq020.
Plattner, Marc F. 2016. “Is Democracy in Decline?” Democracy & Society 13 (1): 1-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0014.
Polity IV. 2016. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2015.” Accessed January 7, 2019. https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4x.htm
Przeworski, Adam, Mike Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 1996. “What Makes Democracies Endure?” Journal of Democracy 7 (1): 39-55. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1996.0016.
Schedler, Andreas. 2012. “Judgment and measurement in political science.” Perspectives on Politics 10 (1): 21-36. http://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592711004889.
Schmitter, Philippe C. 2015. “Crisis and Transition, but Not Decline.” In Democracy in Decline?, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, and Christopher Walker, 39-57. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0004.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1992 [1942]. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. London & New York: Routledge.
Skaaning, Svend-Erik. 2018. “Different Types of Data and the Validity of Democracy Measures.” Politics and Governance 6 (1): 105-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1183.
Steiner, Nils D. 2014. “Comparing Freedom House Democracy Scores to Alternative Indices and Testing for Political Bias: Are US Allies Rated as More Democratic by Freedom House?” Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 18 (4): 329-49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2013.877676.
Treier, Shawn, and Simon Jackman. 2008. “Democracy as a Latent Variable.” American Journal of Political Science 52 (1): 201-17. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x.
Tomini, Luca, and Claudius Wagemann. 2017. “Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis.” European Journal of Political Research 57 (3): 687-716. http://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12244.
Treisman, Daniel. 2018. “Is Democracy in Danger? A Quick Look at the Data.” (Unpublished manuscript). Accessed January 10, 2019. http://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a4d2512a803bb1a5d9aca35/t/5b19d7450e2e727770fa15f5/1528420167336/draft+june+7.pdf.
Vanhanen, Tatu. 1990. The Process of Democratization: A Comparative Study of 147 States, 1980-88. New York: Crane Russak.
Zakaria, Fareed. 1997. “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy.” Foreign Affairs 76 (6): 22-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20048274
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2020-09-30
How to Cite
Sönmez, H. (2020). Democratic Backsliding or Stabilization? The Role of Democracy Indices in Differing Interpretations. Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science, 46, 54–78. https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.46.3
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Research articles
License
Politikon: The IAPSS Journal of Political Science by https://politikon.iapss.org/index.php/politikon is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
