NEW SEMINAR: 13 March 2026 | Statistical Inference in Qualitative Research

Statistical Inference in Qualitative Research

Matías López
13 March 2026
14:00 (GMT+0, London) | 11:00 (Santiago)
Online via Zoom

We are pleased to host Matías López, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Universidad Diego Portales, where he teaches research methods. His research focuses on strengthening causal inference in small-n studies through the integration of probability theory and statistical inference, including new approaches to calculating p-values in process tracing.

About the Talk

This presentation examines the role of statistical inference in qualitative research, with particular attention to Bayesian methods. It introduces an original approach to calculating p-values when evaluating causal theories in single-case studies, such as process tracing.

Building on Fisher’s (1935) framework, the proposed p-value indicates how often one would observe equally or more favorable evidence while entertaining a rival (null) theory. The method relies on an urn model representing the null distribution, calibrated to privilege false negatives and reduce false positives. It also provides a structured approach to sensitivity analysis and to assessing the evidentiary weight of different observations.

The session will clarify the logic of p-values and Bayes factors and demonstrate how to design hypothesis tests using qualitative data.

RSVP:
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