Water Scarcity and Regional Fragmentation in the Middle East

A Quantitative Assessment

Abstract

The turmoil in the Middle East takes its roots in the sharp incongruence between collective identities and territorial boundaries, but the severe and growing water scarcity significantly affects both the interstate relations and the socio-economic stability of the domestic regimes. Consequently, the access, supply, management and control of water flows are a long-standing source of contention and regional polarization. Nevertheless, the sharing of water resources commands the signing of mutual agreements to determine the parties’ grade of exploitation, thus gradually opening to the institutionalization of a cooperative regime or patterns of joint governance. This article aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of the strategic water-related interactions at the interstate level across the Levant. The assessment provides an overview of the regional transboundary water relations  with the purpose of determining whether the Middle East is currently moving toward an increased regionalization or exacerbating the existing rivalries.