Expert Foresight on AI-Driven Disinformation: Findings from the ATHENA Mini-Delphi Study

Pedro Peres Cavalcante

doi:10.22151/politikon.61.CON8

Authors

Pedro Peres Cavalcante Trilateral Research https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6237-7055

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22151/politikon.61.CON8

Keywords:

Artificial Intelligence and Democracy, Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), Disinformation, Misinformation, Delphi Study

Abstract

The 2024 “super election year” demonstrated both the promise and risks of artificial intelligence (AI) in democratic processes. Innovative uses, such as AI-powered fact-checking and voter engagement tools, contrasted with harmful applications including deepfakes. Although the overall impact of deepfakes and other AI-generated disinformation was lower than anticipated, experts predict a substantial rise in AI-powered disinformation in the short term, particularly through synthetic media and foreign influence operations. Evidence of AI-enabled manipulation highlights the need for effective regulation and strengthened oversight to safeguard information integrity in a rapidly changing information ecosystem.

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